Friday, September 11, 2009

Ways To Salvage The Season

The last few weeks have been rather frustrating. After losing 2/3 to the Sox at the Trop, I resigned to the fact that the Rays will not be making the playoffs. There are some ways that the Rays can entertain us over the last few weeks of the season, and here they are with the odds of them happening.

1) Carl Crawford wins MLB Stolen Base title - CC had a huge lead over Ellsbury earlier in the year, but Ellsbury now has the lead. Ellsbury will be in a lot more situations where he is taking bases to help his team win, but CC also now has nothing to lose by getting caught. Odds: 33%

2) Jeff Niemman ties Rays record for wins by a pitcher - Right now Niemman has 12 wins. Niemman probably has 3-4 starts left in him. He had a win all but locked up this past week if it weren't for the pen. If the pen could learn to hold a lead, I think he at least ties the record, especially if he continues to pitch as well as he has the second half of the season. Odds: 52%

3) Wade Davis gets first MLB win - See: discussion on the bullpen in the Jeff Niemman discussion. Odds: 66.67%

4) The Rays sweep the Red Sox, putting the Rangers as the front runners for the wild card - Well, if the Rays couldn't sweep the Sox when the season was on the line, why would they do it now? Odds: 4%

5) The Red Sox get swine flu and have to call up their AAA team who blows their playoff chances - This is probably more likely than number 4. Odds: 4.1%

6) Andy Sonnanstine pitches more than 2 innings of scoreless ball - HAH. Odds: 0.5%

7) Evan Longoria wins the AL RBI title - Longo trails only Mark Texeria, who may be very tough to catch, although he will be getting a few days off coming up once the Yankees clinch the AL East. Odds: 40%

8) Joe Maddon goes through an 8th and 9th inning without going to the bullpen more than once - During September callups with a deeper pen? Maddon is more likely to bat Sonnanstine 3rd in a game....again. Odds: 2%

9) BJ Upton gets to 10 homeruns - BJ has said he wants to play the rest of the season and prove he belongs. My advice: actions speak louder than words BJ, time to step up. Odds: 7%

10) Pat Burrell hits more homeruns than Jason Bartlett - I have this because Pat Burrell was supposed to be a power hitter while Bartlett a contact hitter. Currently, Pat is down by 1 to Bartlett. There is no reason that Burrell can't wind up ahead of Bartlett if he is playing up to his ability, which he is yet to do all season. Odds: 35% Odds of Pat Burrell hitting a homerun off a lefty, which is what he was brought to this team to do and is yet to do: 20%

11) The bullpen holds onto a lead - The pen has been just terrible lately. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then. To me, that means the bullpen has to hold onto at least 1 lead at some point this season, and thus the odds should be 100%. Then again, what pitcher in the pen do you have confidence in? Nothing? Nobody? That's what I thought. Odds: 75%

12) 25,000 people show up to a game at the Trop - I sure hope this happens, even though the Rays aren't in the playoff hunt. Odds: a sad 40%

13) The Rays catch the Red Sox and make the playoffs - This is the Red Sox the Rays are chasing, not the Mets. Odds: 0%

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out where these odds come from.

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